3 minutes
If I told you Google pays for their employees’ phones, you probably wouldn’t be surprised. You might respond with, “Sure. But I bet they only let them choose an Android or a device that is supportive of Google.”
Au contraire! Google happily provides employees with phones that aren’t supportive of its own offerings. If an employee doesn’t choose a Google device, he’s asked to fill out a form indicating why he likes his chosen device better. That’s it.
But why would the company do that?
It’s an example of productive paranoia, according to Kathy Pearson, Ph.D., who spoke at CUES Symposium: A CEO/Chairman Exchange early this year. This idea, originally laid out by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen in their book Great by Choice, is that leaders shouldn’t walk around scared, afraid to make decisions and suspiciously paranoid about their employees. Rather, they should understand that conditions can—and often do—change unexpectedly, violently and fast. In response to this, they should constantly ask “What if….”
Pearson, founder/president of Enterprise Learning Solutions and a senior fellow at the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, said credit unions need to seize opportunities—like learning why employees choose another financial institution’s products rather than those your credit union offers—to uncover uncertainties CUs are facing or are likely to face.
A past presenter at CUES’ CEO Institute I: Strategic Planning, Pearson identified a spectrum of uncertainty. An “unknown unknown” is completely unpredictable, she said. Credit union leaders can stay up all night worrying about an unknown unknown, but never be able to avoid it.
In contrast, a trend is a future force in which the outcome is very predictable – it’s a “known known.” Identifying trends is important because leaders can plan for them, and need to do so.
Filling out the spectrum of uncertainties, Pearson said “known unknowns” can be managed by being adaptable.
If you want your credit union to be a productively paranoid organization, Pearson suggests having an organizational mental model with three actions for strategic agility:
- Identify the key trends and uncertainties. Plan for the key trends and manage the key uncertainties.
- Track the key uncertainties. Make “trendspotting” and “sense-making” commonplace in your workplace.
- Take action based on your credit union’s key uncertainties. This can include conducting rapid experiments, making small bets, and building adaptability and flexibility.
Pearson challenged conference participants to think five years ahead to credit unions in 2021 and identify key trends and uncertainties. The lively discussion surfaced several possibilities on the horizon.
Key trends identified by the group included:
- technology
- mobile payments
- peer-to-peer lending
- consolidation among CUs
- living longer post-retirement
- increased regulation
- increased competition
Key uncertainties noted included:
- future regulation
- changes in the payments industry
- the future of wearable devices
- political leaders
- future competitors
- privacy and attitudes of consumers
- evolution of currency
Pearson said credit union leaders can do one of two things: Wait until some of these become clearer or move forward with these trends and uncertainties in mind, knowing they may change and credit unions will need to adapt.
When looking ahead, Pearson suggested credit union leaders keep their finger on the pulse of early indicators by watching:
- what’s happening in other countries;
- trends in adjacent industries;
- headlines in leading business and tech journals; and
- employees who interact closely with the external environment.
Erin Templer is CUES’ director of marketing.
